Former CIA Middle East division chief Graham Fuller has issued a stark warning about the growing tensions between Türkiye and Israel, stating that any military conflict between the two nations would be catastrophic.
Speaking on Dialogue Works, Fuller addressed the recent hostile rhetoric exchanged between Ankara and Tel Aviv, suggesting it should be viewed as diplomatic posturing rather than genuine threats of war.
While Fuller acknowledged the historically complex relationship between the two countries, he expressed particular concern about the unpredictable nature of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's administration. He cautioned that Israel's military activities in Syria and Lebanon risk inadvertently drawing Türkiye into a broader regional conflict.
"The Turkish military is a serious force, probably the most serious military opponent that Israel could face in the region," Fuller stated, highlighting Türkiye's substantial military capabilities. He emphasized that any Israeli military engagement with Türkiye would represent a "massive overreach" that could prove disastrous.
Fuller, who spent two decades as a CIA operations officer with extensive experience in Türkiye, Lebanon, and Afghanistan, hopes the current tensions amount to nothing more than "bluster." His expertise includes serving as the national intelligence officer for Near East and South Asia during the 1980s.
The warning comes amid escalating diplomatic tensions between the two regional powers, with both sides engaging in increasingly confrontational rhetoric. However, Fuller maintains that direct military conflict remains unlikely, despite the concerning trajectory of relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv.