German intelligence agencies have issued a stark warning about Russia's military preparations and potential plans for confrontation with NATO by the end of this decade, according to a new report by Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and the Bundeswehr.
The report reveals that Russia views its relationship with the West as a systemic conflict and is actively preparing for a possible large-scale conventional war with NATO. Intelligence sources indicate that Moscow could be fully ready for such a confrontation by 2030.
While Russia remains heavily engaged in Ukraine, both its air force and navy maintain combat readiness. Lithuania's intelligence service suggests that Moscow might attempt to "test NATO" through a limited military operation against one or more member states to evaluate the alliance's response capabilities.
The Kremlin's military spending has seen an unprecedented surge, with the defense budget expected to reach €120 billion in 2025 - more than 6% of Russia's GDP. This represents a fourfold increase compared to 2021 levels. Plans are also underway to expand the Russian army to 1.5 million personnel and boost military assets along NATO borders by 30-50%.
Russia has intensified its hybrid warfare campaign against Western nations since 2022, employing various tactics including:
- Sabotage operations
- Cyberattacks
- Disinformation campaigns
- Election interference
These activities have targeted multiple European countries, including Germany, the United Kingdom, and Poland, with the apparent aim of weakening Western unity and destabilizing European societies.
In response to the growing threats, Germany recently announced additional military aid to Ukraine, including air defense systems, drones, and radar equipment. NATO members are also increasing their defensive preparations, with recent military exercises conducted near Russia's borders involving thousands of troops.
The BND report emphasizes that despite Russia's current focus on Ukraine, its forces could be swiftly redeployed to threaten NATO's eastern flank, particularly the Baltic states, if the Ukrainian conflict concludes.